New Ratings Reflect Thinning Ice for Alaska’s Stevens, Young

After years of nearly iron-clad electoral security in strongly Republican-leaning Alaska, Sen. Ted Stevens and at-large Rep. Don Young — and their Republican Party — suddenly find themselves at risk this year. And the problems faced by Stevens, who has been a senator since 1968, and Young, the state’s sole House member since 1973, essentially stem from the same source: publicity about individual federal investigations into both veteran incumbents’ ties to Alaska businessmen who are at the core of the most sweeping political corruption scandals in the state’s history.

With both Stevens and Young facing stiffening challenges from a Democratic Party that in the past rarely even laid a finger on them, CQ Politics has changed its ratings of these races to more competitive categories. The Senate race rating has moved to Leans Republican from Republican Favored. This change means Stevens is still is perceived as having an edge, but the possibility of an upset appears stronger — especially if the Democrats’ most sought-after recruit, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, moves from an “exploratory” effort to a full-fledged campaign.

And Young appears to be at even greater risk. CQ Politics changed the House rating to its No Clear Favorite, or tossup, category from Leans Republican.

Both lawmakers are seeking re-election while under scrutiny for their ties to an ethics scandal related to Veco Corp., an Alaska oil services company. The investigation into Veco’s activities has so far resulted in the conviction of three state lawmakers, two oil executives and a lobbyist.

Both Young and Stevens have denied wrongdoing but have appeared in the news in relation to the scandal. Stevens’ home was raided in July 2007 by the FBI and the IRS, which is looking into whether Veco may have covered home renovation costs for the longtime senator, according to news reports.

Bill Allen, former chief executive of Veco Corp. and a longtime close associate of Stevens, pleaded guilty to bribing Alaska state lawmakers last May, and it was reported in September that the FBI taped phone conversations between Allen and Stevens.

Young was publicly linked to Veco last September by an employee of that company, who told the Associated Press that he helped run annual pig roasts as campaign fundraisers for the congressman. Young has received campaign contributions from Veco in the past and has been attacked by watchdog groups who allege that earmarks he has inserted into spending bills are part of a “quid pro quo” for campaign funds.

Most Alaska politics watchers believe Young — who spent close to $900,000 last year on both legal expenses and legal fees — is more vulnerable than Stevens. While both have applied muscular efforts to steering federal funds to their home state, Stevens has accrued more credit as a veteran member (and former chairman) of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

In addition, Stevens, while known to have a temper, is personally well-liked in Alaska political circles. Young, a former riverboat captain, has a more rough-hewn manner that has alienated some political colleagues.

Last week, Young drew a strong primary challenge from a statewide Republican officeholder, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. Parnell quickly received the endorsement of Republican Gov. Sarah Palin , who positions herself as a political reformer and has high approval ratings in the state. Parnell was Palin’s running mate in 2006 when she ousted Republican Gov. Frank H. Murkowski in the Republican primary and then defeated Democratic former Gov. Tony Knowles in the general election.

State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux is also competing for the Aug. 26 Republican primary.

Democrats, meanwhile, have a cadre of competitors seeking the nomination for the House general election. They include state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, known statewide as the party’s 2006 nominee for lieutenant governor; former state party Chairman Jake Metcalfe, who is well-connected in Democratic circles; and Diane Benson, a writer who surprised many Alaskans by capturing 40 percent of the vote against Young in 2006 despite being heavily outspent.

Political scientist Carl Shepro of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks said Young may be in trouble if Benson’s 2006 race is “any indication” of how this year’s contest could pan out. Shepro noted that Benson did not have the money nor the campaign organization that some of the other contenders in this year’s race have displayed.

Shepro said Young recently roiled voters with blunt statements made at a press conference in which he chastised one reporter who described himself as a constituent who did not vote for Young.

Young’s new primary challenger, Parnell, told the Anchorage Daily News that Young’s comments at the press conference factored into Parnell’s decision to run. “Certainly the last interview played a part where he indicated that because somebody didn’t vote for him that they were not his constituent. That is wrong in my estimation,” Parnell told the newspaper. “Part of the public trust is even if somebody doesn’t vote for us, we represent them in the best way that we know how. That was something that got me talking a lot more about it.”

Stevens may be on stronger footing than Young, but the looming possibility of a Begich candidacy would give him his strongest challenger in many years,

Begich is well-known as the mayor of the state’s largest city, and is familiar to other voters because of his father, the late Democratic Rep. Nick Begich. The elder Begich won Alaska’s House seat in 1970, but was killed along with then-House Majority Leader Hale Boggs of Louisiana in 1972 when the campaign plane in which they were flying disappeared without a trace. The vacancy created by Nick Begich’s death was filled in the 1973 special won by Young.

Stevens, 84, is an icon in Alaska politics and is the longest-serving Senate Republican ever, nearly 40 years after he was appointed in December 1968 to fill a vacancy.

University of Alaska political scientist Jerry McBeath believes Stevens has “done a better job representing the state interests than Young.” He added that while they both have reputations for being gruff and blunt, Young’s behavior has “drawn more national negative attention.”

Several Republicans are preparing to challenge Stevens in the primary, including David Cuddy, a wealthy real estate developer who lost to Stevens in the 1996 GOP primary after spending more than $1 million in personal funds. The incumbent’s hold on the Republican nomination does not, at this point, look seriously threatened.

The state typically votes Republican, but candidates in Alaska also must appeal to unaffiliated voters and third-party supporters who make up 60 percent of the registration rolls.

Working in Young and Stevens’ favor is also their fundraising abilities. Young reported $948,000 on hand as of Dec. 31, and Stevens reported just more than $1 million on hand.

Analysts note that the ethics investigation still threatens to throw another wrench in Young and Stevens’ re-election plans, especially if charges are brought against the lawmakers. “If either are indicted,” McBeath said, “their careers are history.”


http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002691187


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